论科研选题应注意的几个问题

科研选题要善于把握选题的原别和导向，注意课题的研究动态，把握课题的研究范围，发挥出科研人员的优势，设计出切实可行的研究路线。     

绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业的影响研究

为了避免绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业造成更大的经济损失,保持行业的持续健康发展,本文分析了绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业带来的积极影响和消极影响,进而提出应对绿色壁垒消极影响的措施。     

On estimating the mean of the selected normal population under the LINEX loss function

Following Parsian and Farsipour (1999), we consider the problem of estimating the mean of the selected normal population, from two normal populations with unknown means and common known variance, under the LINEX loss function. Some admissibility results for a subclass of equivariant estimators are derived and a sufficient condition for the inadmissibility of an arbitrary equivariant estimator is provided. As a consequence, several of the estimators proposed by Parsian and Farsipour (1999) are shown to be inadmissible and better estimators are obtained. Received January 2001/Revised May 2002     

Selecting Sites for New Facilities Using Data Envelopment Analysis

This paper develops a mathematical programming model for obtaining a best set of sites for planned facilities. The model is concerned with those situations where resource constraints are present. The specific setting for the paper involves the selection of sites for a set of retail outlets, wherein the ratio of aggregate outputs to inputs for the selected set is maximal among all possible sets that could be chosen. At the same time, the model guarantees that the only sets of stores allowable are those for which the available resources are used to the maximum extent possible.     

三阶随机占优准则在证券选择中的应用

通常可以用分布函数和分住数函数描述随机占优准则,Man-Chung Ng列举的两个例子说明在三阶随机占优条件下用两种方法得到的结论是不一致的,这与Levy的观点相反。该文分别将这两种方法描述的三阶随机占优准则用于上海证券市场的基金选择,发现用两种方法在应用中得到的结论并不总是一致的。由此验证用Levy提出的分位数方法描述的随机占优准则进行实证研究是不正确的,一阶和二阶条件除外。     

Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models

Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks) appear to offer a useful and viable alternative to less flexible fixed specification linear models for a subset of the economic variables which we examine, particularly at forecast horizons greater than 1-step ahead. We speculate that one reason for this result is that the economy is evolving (rather slowly) over time. This feature cannot easily be captured by fixed specification linear models, however, and manifests itself in the form of evolving coefficient estimates. We also provide additional evidence supporting the claim that models which ‘win’ based on one model selection criterion (say a squared error measure) do not necessarily win when an alternative selection criterion is used (say a confusion rate measure), thus highlighting the importance of the particular cost function which is used by forecasters and ‘end-users’ to evaluate their models. A wide variety of different model selection criteria and statistical tests are used to illustrate our findings.     

Risky allocations from a risk-neutral informed principal

We study a model of informed principal with private values where the principal is risk neutral and the agent is risk averse. We show that the principal, regardless of her type, gains by not revealing her type to the agent through the contract offer. The equilibrium allocation transfers some ex-ante risk from one type of agent to the other. Despite the increase in the principal's surplus, allocative efficiency does not necessarily improve. Received: 26 January 2004, Accepted: 5 May 2005 JEL Classification: C72, D23, D82 I would like to thank my supervisor Leonardo Felli for suggestions and Leo Ferraris for helpful discussions. All remainig errors are my own.     

论反向旅游

旅游目的地选择是旅游需求与旅游供给双方互动的过程，必须从旅游目的地属性与旅游者属性两个方面予以分析。已有的旅游需求模型用来激发或改变消费者旅行行为策略不敏感，不能满意解释旅游流的时空特性。为此提出“反向旅游”概念，并就其内涵、现实意义及产品开发和营销中应注意的问题进行了深入的讨论。反向旅游的表面是追求景观差异的极大化，实质是追求利益极大化，也是一种跨文化旅蝣行为。和一般旅蝣相比，反向旅蝣的求知求奇效益更大。但“反向旅游”广泛而不普遍，有时只停留在表面。可以从时间、空间、文化等多方面开发反向旅游产品，锁定消费群体开展有针对性的营销。     

中小私营企业融资中"逆向选择"失灵现象新探

对某些地域中小私营企业融资行为的实证分析表明与常规的设想相反,同国有企业极高的融资热情相比,一般被人们认为风险较大的私营中小企业在融资中存在“逆向选择”失灵的现象。本建立了一个模型对导致此现象的原因进行了探讨。     

品牌之死——基于品牌经济学视角的分析

基于品牌经济学视角对品牌之死的研究表明：品牌之死有自然死亡、突然死亡和长寿品牌3种基本类型；品牌之死即为需求之死；品牌的品类、品类度和品牌策略决定了品牌生命；因而延长品牌生命也应从这3方面制定相应的策略。